Top 30 is an application designed to help you keep track of the college football season. From week to week you predict pointspreads based on the power ratings of teams. Power ratings are updated as you enter the scores of weekly games.
TERMS/DISCLAIMER
Top 30 is a shareware program. You may distribute it on bulletin board systems, but the author retains all other rights, including distribution on media over 2MB. There is no specific fee for using the program. I do ask that you send me something (see address below): cash, brownies, neckties, postcards, records, tapes, CD’s (any jazz idiom preferred), sporting equipment, computer software, pictures of your Mom...whatever you thing the program is worth. I’ve thought of several enhancements I may make in the future. If you use the program and want to see specific enhancements yourself, then send me a note. I can’t guarantee anything, but if the ideas sound good, I might work on it. If the incentive is good, I’ll certainly work on it. Remember: shareware authors work better when the incentives are there.
This program is mainly a database to predict college football game pointspreads. Of course, the author does not condone gambling, certainly not for money, or pizza, nor can the author be held liable for consequences of the use of this program. In other words, if you make a bad bet, it ain’t my fault.
FILES
This package contains four files: the Top 30 application, a Games file, a Teams file, and this text documentation. If you redistribute the package, you must make sure that all four files are contained. Place the Top 30 application, Games and Teams files in the same folder, then double-click on the Top 30 icon to run. If either the Games or the Teams file does not exist in the same folder as the Top 30 program, Top 30 will create the appropriate file. If you wish to clear your database of games or teams, simply delete either file.
POWER RATINGS AND PREDICTION RULES
Top 30 keeps a database of power ratings for any number of teams. You can update these each year during the pre-season. There are a number of publications that rate college football teams; I usually use Game Plan's, but I neither endorse nor criticize that particular magazine. If you follow the sport close enough, you can give the teams your own power ratings.
The program predicts games through a simple formula which can be modified through the "Edit Prediction Rule" item in the Edit menu. The computer subtracts one team's power from another to determine a pointspread for the game. Home field advantage can be figured in optionally (see "TEAMS"). The power ratings are then updated when the score of the game is entered. Say that Iowa is playing Michigan. Iowa has a rating of 120 to Michigan's 124. Michigan would be favored by 4 points. Let's say the game is at Michigan, and Michigan has a home field advantage rating of 3. This would give the game to Michigan by 7 points. Let's say the final score of the game was Michigan 21, Iowa 3. This gives Michigan an 18-point victory, and a variance of 11 points over the spread. The computer would look at your prediction rule to see how many points a variance of 11 is worth. Let's say your rule looks like this:
variance points
1 - 4 1
5 - 10 2
11 - 19 3
20 + 4
In this case, the variance of 11 would be worth 3 power points. Since the variance was in Michigan's favor, Michigan would add 3 to their power rating while Iowa loses 3. A variance of 0 indicates that the computer predicted the game perfectly; no points are added or lost.
Let's say that the game ended Iowa 21, Michigan 20. In this case, the variance from the pointspread would be 8 (Michigan predicted by 7, Iowa wins by 1) in Iowa's favor. A variance of 8 according to our prediction rule is worth 2 points. Iowa's power rating would go up by 2 points, and Michigan's would go down by 2. It is possible for a team predicted to win to lose points even after winning a game. Say Michigan wins by 1 point over Iowa. If predicted to win by 7, and only wins by 1, the variance is 6 in Iowa's favor. Iowa's power would still go up by two.
In addition to the variance rule, you can specify points for a win or a loss by clicking on the appropriate checkbox in the "Edit Prediction Rules" dialog. If either is checked, the computer will add (subtract) the points you list for a straight win or loss.
TEAMS
The features in Top 30 are accessed through its menus. The Teams menu allows you to enter new teams and edit their or existing teams' power ratings. When modifying a team, you enter its name, its conference (through a pop-up menu), its home field rating, and its power rating. The home field rating is a number which will be automatically added to that team's power when it plays at home. Some teams perform better at home than others, so you may want to give them higher home ratings. Some people prefer a set value for every team (say, 2 or 3 points). If you prefer not to use the home rating, enter 0 in this field. In the Add/Edit teams dialog, you must click one of the "OK" buttons to accept any changes to a team. Clicking "Done" will simply dismiss the dialog.
Two other features in the Teams menu are the "TeamScan" and "Top 30" items. Selecting the "TeamScan" item will allow you to choose a team for viewing. A window for that team is created, and any games that team has played in the season (entered through the "Enter Scores" item in the Games menu) will be shown along with a graph of that team's power rating climbing and/or falling through the weeks. The "Top 30" item allows you to see the top 30 teams (sorted by power rating) in the database. You may also choose to see teams individually or by conference by clicking on the appropriate buttons. You may select "Print" from the File menu for either the TeamScan or the Top 30 windows to have that window's contents printed.
GAMES
The real heart to the program is in predicting games and updating the power ratings by entering weekly scores. Choosing "Predict Games" from the Games menu brings up a window with two lists of teams. Pick the teams for the game (or type their names in), and click on the "home" radio button for the home team. If neither team is considered "home", then click "NF" (neutral field) and no home advantage is assigned. Then click "Predict" and the computer will predict the pointspread. Predictions are kept in the list at the bottom of the window. This list may be printed by selecting "Print" from the File menu. If you make a mistake and enter a wrong game for prediction, you can select "Undo" from the Edit menu, and the last game entered will be erased from the list. Clicking on the "Clear" button will clear the entire list.
You should choose "Enter Scores" at least once a week to enter the scores for all the teams in the database. A window similar to the one for predictions is shown. In addition to names and home advantage, you must enter scores for each team. When everything is set, click "Save"; the computer will save the game to the Games file on disk, and update each team's power ratings according to their performance (see "POWER RATINGS AND PREDICTION RULES"). Again, if you made a mistake, select "Undo" from the Edit menu, and the last game entered will be erased from disk. Only the last game entered can be undone; other games in the file are there for good. To help you keep track of which teams you've entered, after a score is entered the computer deletes both teams from the two lists. If you ever want to re-create the lists so all teams are showing, click on the football helmet icon at the upper left.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
I am currently a music teacher in a small Iowa town. I'm finding even less time than I used to have to program, but again, if the incentives are there I'll keep working at it. Please send all correspondence, notes, postcards, periodicals, vanilla wafers, living room furniture, money, jazz recordings, and anything else to:
Mike Ellison
HexPress Software
2725 S. 107 St.
Omaha, NE 68124
I can also be reached via E-Mail on America Online at "MishaE", or through the Internet at "MishaE@aol.com" (no quotes on either). Of course, it's hard to send living room furniture through electronic mail, but I hear that that's progressing quickly.
